3/18/2024 0 Comments Nytimes election results 2016![]() The problem, for campaigns and forecasters alike: Which states will be decisive and what it will take to win often critically depends on which third party or independent candidates gain ballot access.Īs we argued four years ago, the most reasonable way to think about the EC early on in any given election year is that it massively increases uncertainty in both directions. Suffice it to say here that since the 1980s, campaigns have grown increasingly sophisticated in targeting voters in battleground states to gain EC advantage. presidency is not the popular vote but the Electoral College (EC), a topic we will no doubt return to regularly. Of course, what counts in the end for the U.S. By contrast, Trump’s 2016 share at 46.1% of the popular vote nationally was roughly in line with such losing presidential candidates as Mitt Romney in 2012, John McCain in 2008 and, indeed, Trump himself in 2020. Biden won in 2020 with 51.3% of the popular vote, a vote share tending to entail victory in most electoral systems. However, our chart should serve as a reminder of just how different those two victories were. After all, both Biden and Donald Trump have won before. Superficially, it might seem like a rematch between both major parties’ elderly front runners should be a toss-up. presidential candidates in 20, compared to all runner ups since 2000, with 1988 also added for comparison. Our Chart of the Week starts off election coverage by looking at popular vote shares of major U.S. Making reliable inferences typically requires judgement calls in how to analyze the available data and being clear eyed on what the data actually shows. presidential election forecasts typically rely on small samples of not necessarily representative data, given that elections only happen once every four years. All simple rules of thumb tend to be broken – eventually. election year to unfold by extrapolating from early contests. Events such as Biden’s subsequent comeback in South Carolina are worth recalling, whenever pundits are all too certain about how they expect a U.S. Biden’s middling showing in Nevada only reinforced the conventional wisdom that the party’s activist base would deliver the nomination to Bernie Sanders after all, the leftwing Senator had won the most votes in each of the first three states. At this time four years ago, Joe Biden’s presidential bid was in the doldrums, following devastating losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. electoral history is full of surprising comebacks and stumbling frontrunners.
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